Election could decide whether country sticks with liberal, pro-western line or begins to lean more towards Russia
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Exit poll shows Progressive Slovakia in lead
An exit poll conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza is now public:
Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia: 23.5%
Robert Fico’s Smer: 21.9%
Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas: 12.2%
Key events
Progressive Slovakia shines in capital
With around 20% of votes counted in the Bratislava region, the progressives have a solid lead in the area.
Here are the latest numbers.
Smer could finish first, analyst says
“Smer’s lead with 40% of votes counted is so big that my guess is that they might finish on the 1st place,” Slovakia expert Milan Nič told the Guardian.
Central European progressives excited
It is “not everyday do we see an election where the margins are so tight, and the stakes are so extremely high,” said Katalin Cseh, a member of the European parliament from Hungary’s Momentum, an ally of Progressive Slovakia.
“I sincerely hope that the final results confirm the findings of the exit polls, and Slovakia chooses a European future over Russian propaganda,” she said.
“A stable, progressive, pro-European government is essential not only for the benefit of Slovak citizens, but also for the European Union as a whole,” Cseh said.
“I am convinced,” she added, “that Mr Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia will be an essential ally for continuing the green transition, sustaining support for Ukraine, and for fending off the rise of populism and democratic backsliding, a phenomenon unfortunately far too common in the EU these days.”
All eyes are now on the capital.
“We are anxiously waiting for more precincts to be counted,” tweeted Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka.
“Let’s keep our fingers crossed,” he said.
Latest national results
With nearly 37% of votes counted, Smer is formally in the lead. It remains unclear how much votes from Bratislava – where the vast majority of ballots have yet to be counted – will shift the balance.
Progressive Slovakia is in the lead in the Bratislava region as votes begin to be counted.
Prediction
Progressive Slovakia “will see its vote increase, but maybe not enough to come 1st,” tweeted Tim Haughton, a professor of comparative and European politics at the University of Birmingham.
Where the first 25% votes were counted - given that no surprise Smer doing well and the Hungarian Aliancia. PS will see its vote increase, but maybe not enough to come 1st pic.twitter.com/b2hghPCuUv
— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) September 30, 2023
With less than a third of votes counted, this is where the results stand, according to Slovakia’s statistics office.
There are conflicting views on how to read early results.
Slovak daily Pravda’s Andrej Matisak says the exit polls were wrong. Others advise patience.
University College London lecturer Michal Ovádek cautions that early results do not include Bratislava – and are thus not indicative of the ultimate outcome.
PSA on #SlovakiaElections: the first 20% of the votes counted includes virtually no votes from the capital and only a limited number from other cities. The exit poll will not be fully accurate but the current results are not at all representative
— Michal Ovádek (@michal_ovadek) September 30, 2023
Long night ahead
There appears to be a big disparity between the first exit poll and first real results.
Nevertheless, many votes – including in the capital – have yet to be counted.
Robert Fico’s Smer in lead as votes counted
Despite exit polls showing that Progressive Slovakia would come in first, with 20% of votes counted the picture favours Smer.
Waiting for results
With only 18% of votes counted, Smer is officially in the lead – but it remains unclear how representative those counted votes are of the full electorate. Stay tuned.
What could the new Slovak parliament look like?
Denník N made a calculation based on the Focus exit poll for TV Markíza.
Reactions to the first exit polls, in photos
