The playoff race in the Eastern Conference is starting to really heat up. The Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins are currently occupying the last two Wild Card spots with 58 and 57 points, respectively, but the Buffalo Sabres are right on their heels with 56 points, and the Sabres have games in hand on both teams. The New York Islanders (55 points) and Florida Panthers (54 points) are not to be counted out yet, either.
The Capitals have a huge opportunity to give themselves some breathing room with a win over the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday night.
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Blue Jackets vs. Capitals prediction (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
There’s something odd going on with the Capitals. After getting off to a sluggish start, the Caps righted the ship with a 15-4-3 stretch to launch themselves into the mix. And the best part of that run was that the team was set to get Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom back into the lineup for the first time all season.
The goal for the Caps in the first half was to stay in the hunt until they got healthy — and they ticked that box.
But after winning, 1-0, against the run of play against these Blue Jackets in Backstrom and Wilson’s season debut, the Caps sagged into a 3-6 stretch despite playing a pretty soft schedule. And if you step back even further, you’ll notice that this pedestrian form extends back even further, as the Caps are just 7-7-2 since the holiday break, and five of those seven wins came against teams outside the playoff picture right now.
Washington’s statistical portfolio in this 16-game malaise is a pretty fair reflection of how things are going, too. Since the break, the Caps rank 16th in 5-on-5 goal differential, 10th in shot attempt rate, 12th in expected goals rate, and 17th in high-danger chance rate.
Those numbers are not alarming, but they are also not encouraging. The Caps have always been able to get away with getting out-chanced or out-possessed because they have so many high-end playmakers. Still, their core is aging, and they’ve been dealing with injuries all season, so the margin for error is a lot thinner for this version of the Capitals compared to seasons past.
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The good news is that the Caps won’t have to play at their best level to get a win over Columbus. The Jackets are in the midst of a 2-6 stretch and are a putrid 5-17-1 with a -35 goal differential over their last 23 contests.
The Jackets are a team with many faults, but right now they can at least feel good about their goaltending when Joonas Korpisalo is in between the pipes. After a couple of dismal seasons, Korpisalo has been a bright spot for Columbus with a .912 save percentage and a +3.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 22 appearances this year.
Columbus has struggled all over the ice this season, but the Jackets are having an especially tough time generating offense right now. Columbus ranks dead last in creating high-danger scoring opportunities and has generated the fourth-fewest expected goals at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games. It’s hard to see this team putting up a crooked number.
Washington should be able to win this game going away, but the Caps haven’t been playing their best hockey of late and are struggling to create offense themselves. With Korpisalo in goal, a play on the Under 6.5 is worth a shot in this Metro Division tussle.
Blues vs. Blue Jackets pick
Under 6.5 (BetMGM)
