Unders are 37-22 in NBA playoff Game 7s since 2005. I’m banking on it happening again in this series.
The Celtics have turned up the defensive intensity over the past three games.
Heat vs. Celtics prediction
Of course, it helps when the Heat have finally regressed from deep.
After shooting out of their minds through the first three rounds — and first three games of the Eastern Conference final — the Heat are shooting 36.5 percent from deep over the past three games.
Miami shot 34.4 percent from 3-point range throughout the regular season, so the past few games are more on par with their actual shooting talent.
Ultimately, the Heat have shot fine, and the Celtics have tapped into their defensive mentality (especially Marcus Smart). As a result, the past three games of this series have gone Under.
I expect more of the same in Game 7, especially given the context — teams play more tightly in do-or-die elimination games.
Another thing to keep in mind is the Heat will be playing with a ton of pressure after blowing a 3-0 lead and could be a little tight early in the game.
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The Under is taking all the smart money, so the line has moved down considerably since opening.
I still like the Under at 202.5.
The play: Under 202.5 (BetMGM)
