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MLB PrizePicks predictions, player picks May 29: Austin Riley, Michael Kopech

I hope everyone is enjoying Memorial Day weekend.

Most of the baseball games on today’s slate start fairly early, but the four we are targeting start right around 8:00 PM ET.

We will focus on picks from those four late games. Let’s dive right into it. 

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MLB PrizePicks predictions and picks for Monday

Austin Riley more than 8.0 hitter fantasy score

The Braves have the highest team total of the eight teams playing in the late games tonight, so it makes sense to get some exposure to their offense on PrizePicks.

Ronald Acuna has been red-hot at the plate, but his projection is sitting at 9.5. Instead, I like Riley at his 8.0 projection.

Over the last two seasons, he owns a .343 wOBA and a .211 ISO against right-handed pitching.

This season, he has a .351 xwOBA and a .198 xISO.

He’s been in good form all season, and his one weakness (24% strikeout rate) is negated a bit in a matchup against Paul Blackburn. 

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Paul Blackburn less than 4.0 strikeouts

We can play a little bit of correlation here with the Braves’ offense and the less than 4.0 strikeouts for Blackburn.

If he struggles, that would obviously be good for Atlanta’s hitters.

Blackburn will be making his first start of the season, as he’s been dealing with a finger injury.

Even without the injury concern, his strikeout rates over the last three seasons in the majors have been 14%, 14%, and 19%.

He’s unlikely to pitch deep into this game and he draws a difficult matchup against the Braves, who are fourth in runs scored and 14th in strikeouts this season.

Whether Blackburn gets pulled early due to a lack of success or whether he doesn’t pitch deep into the game due to this being his first start back, I like him to get fewer than four strikeouts. 

Michael Kopech has rounded into form for the White Sox
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Michael Kopech more than 6.0 strikeouts

The underlying metrics for Kopech aren’t very pretty if you look at this season as a whole, but he has clearly figured something out in his last two starts.

During that stretch, he has thrown 15 scoreless innings while striking out 19 batters and only issuing one walk.

The walks have been his biggest issue over the last couple of seasons, so it’s nice to see better command from him over the last two starts.

Tonight he squares off against the Angels, who have seven batters in their projected lineups with at least a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

As a team, the Angels have the 12th most strikeouts this season. 

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Luis Robert more than 7.0 hitter fantasy score

Robert has failed to meet this mark in each of his last five games, but had scored at least eight fantasy points in 10 of his previous 12 outings.

The White Sox have been a tough offense to predict this season, but they draw a nice matchup at home against Griffin Canning.

Over the last two seasons, Canning has allowed a .323 wOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Meanwhile, Robert has been very good when it comes to his Statcast data. He currently boasts a .352 wOBA and a .246 ISO this season.