In sports betting and in life, it pays to be bold. And that’s especially true ahead of this Super Bowl 2023 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
We’ve already broken down some of our favorite game props and player props and how we’re betting the game itself. But what about the long-shot bets?
After all, the Super Bowl presents a perfect opportunity for targeting niche outcomes within the most dissected matchup of the year – and earning a nice plus-money payout as a result.
So, with that said, here are three bold predictions worth betting on now ahead of Super Bowl 57:
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Eagles to win by 9.5 or more points (+280, FanDuel)
While we’ve become accustomed to close Super Bowls over the last couple of decades, we’ve also seen a fair share of double-digit victories in the big game. And I have a sneaking suspicion that the Eagles are due for one here.
Five of the last nine Super Bowls have been decided by at least 10 points, and all four of the outliers saw one team boast a double-digit lead at some point before a tense final quarter. Both of the Chiefs’ title appearances in the last four years ended with double-digit margins, including the Buccaneers’ 31-9 win in Kansas City’s last showing on this stage.
The Eagles are built to deliver a beating similar to that one – they won eight games this year by double digits and outscored their two playoff opponents by a ridiculous 55 points ahead of Super Bowl 57. You should still bet Philly to win outright (-120) first and foremost, but I’m sprinkling a little on a much wider margin, too.
Patrick Mahomes to throw 2+ interceptions (+375, BetMGM)
It may feel blasphemous to bet against this year’s presumptive MVP after he engineered one of the great postseason performances we’ve ever seen in last week’s AFC Championship. But he hasn’t exactly kept his powder dry in his two previous Super Bowl performances.
In his last title appearance, Mahomes threw two picks in one of the worst showings of his career against a ferocious Tampa Bay defense – one similar to what he’ll see next Sunday against the Eagles. And even when Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP in 2020, he still tossed two interceptions against the 49ers in the second half alone.
Mahomes has only thrown multiple interceptions three times in 13 career postseason starts. Two of them came in the Super Bowl. With Philly boasting the best secondary that Mahomes has seen all season, I’ll gladly make a plus-money bet on another turnover-filled outing.
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Kenneth Gainwell to lead all players in rushing yards (+1300, FanDuel)
I love the over on just about every Gainwell player prop on the market ahead of Super Bowl 57, and I’m absolutely floored at this price on the Eagles’ electric back to pace the field in rushing yards.
The second-year back led the Eagles backfield in carries (14), rushing yards (48) and total snaps (31) last week, and his 112 rushing yards in the divisional round are the most that any player on either roster has ever amassed in a playoff game. He’s also rushed for 160 yards this postseason, which is the most by any back on either roster.
So why in the world is he dealing as such a long shot to do the same next Sunday? It may seem bold on the surface, but Gainwell might actually be the best bet in general to pull off this feat in the Super Bowl – with a sterling price to boot.
