Any Test match will hinge on a handful of key passages - where the mistakes of one side will help the other either escape pressure in their own half or apply pressure in your half and score points.
The Wallabies managed to package up those negative outcomes into the same moment, more than once, in the first half.
And with discipline proving a problem yet again, what began as a competitive first-half performance by Australia quickly slipped away and ended in one of the Wallabies’ darkest days.
The second half saw the Wallabies concede 24 points, but the game was lost on a handful of key moments in the first.
First minute: Wallabies concede penalty after 13 seconds
The boring reality of winning a Test match, let alone a do-or-die World Cup clash, is nailing the smallest of details hundreds and hundreds of times, to give your rival the minimum amount of free opportunities.
So, when captain Dave Porecki made the first tackle of the match from the kickoff, drove sideways and was penalised for not rolling away, it was the worst possible start, tonally and psychologically.
Referee Wayne Barnes penalised Dave Porecki after just 13 seconds.Credit: Getty
After 13 seconds, referee Wayne Barnes blew his whistle and the Welsh got the first of many easy entries into the Australian half. They made the most of the gift, too, playing a kick from the next play and using subsequent field position to score an opening try (see below).
Third minute: Wales’ first attack raid comes up diamonds
And so we immediately come to the second key mistake made by the Wallabies, with only two minutes and a handful of seconds on the clock.
From the second lineout of the game, Wales played the ball off the top and after long passes from Gareth Davies and No.10 Dan Biggar, Wales inside centre Nic Tompkins had the ball midfield at the point of a diamond formation. With George North to his right and Josh Adams sweeping behind, Tompkins instead passed inside to flanker Jac Morgan.
After racing up to Biggar slightly ahead of Samu Kerevi, and just a fraction too far apart, Ben Donaldson left a small gap and Morgan raced through it.
Davies outpaced Tom Hooper in support to take a pass and score.
17th minute: Wallabies linebreak leads to more Wales points
After the Wallabies posted two penalty kicks and got themselves back to almost level terms, they had a chance to go ahead via a try in the 17th minute. As the Wallabies built some phases, Donaldson jinked and surged through a gap in the Wales’ defence.
Ben Donaldson’s linebreak in the first half against Wales.Credit: Getty
But the No.10 only had eyes for support on the inside, instead of Tom Hooper and Richie Arnold unmarked on the right. A pass intended for Nick Frost was intercepted by Wales, and they not only cleared their danger zone with a kick, it went all the way to the Wallabies’ in-goal.
Right on cue, Hooper gave away a coach-killing penalty in the next phase of play and Wales went further ahead with a penalty.
27th minute: Turn down points, botch lineout, concede more points
The Wallabies pieced together their best phases of play as the clock neared the 25-minute mark, and after a nice Rob Leota sideline scoot, built pressure on Wales.
The Welsh infringed in front of the sticks and a penalty would have made the score 10-9 to the team in red. But perhaps enthused after finally mounting some attack, the Wallabies went to the corner instead to push for a rolling maul try.
Calamity unfolded as the lineout was a shambles. When Leota attempted to step out for Richie Arnold to jump at No.2. Leota’s leg was caught and the Wallabies forwards fell over one another. It gifted the ball back to Wales, who cleared again and won a 50-22.
One minute later the Wallabies conceded another penalty and the score ticked further along, to 13-6.
“Tell me why we wouldn’t take the kick? If you’re on the field at that moment and you’re making that decision, why do I not take the kick at goal here?” Michael Hooper asked on Stan Sport.
“And I can’t see too many reasons why you wouldn’t. I’m sure the team on the field maybe felt the momentum was in their favour, we can go big, score seven... it doesn’t happen and then Wales gets an absolute lift from it. So, hindsight’s a lovely thing there.”
37th minute: Not Valetini’s day
Though their attack was degenerating into one-out, battering ram areas, the Wallabies were still hanging in the fight as the halftime break approached, and with the score at 13-6.
And a period of strong defence, including one big shot from Samu Kerevi, highlighted the resolve.
Rob Valetini looking downcast after the game.Credit: Getty
But then the ball popped out of a Wales ruck and one of the worst laws in rugby’s telephone book-sized law manual popped its head up. Despite the ball rolling behind Davies’ legs as halfback, and being in clear daylight, when Rob Valetini raced in and dived on it, he was pinged for leaving his feet.
The law states if a ball is “emerging” from a ruck - ie is less than a metre from the ruck - it can’t be dived on. It can only be picked up. For what reason? Good question.
Wales were given another three points and the score was 16-6 at the break. It was enough of a buffer for the Welsh to be confident they could push away in the second, with the Wallabies’ attack having rarely troubled their defence.
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And that’s how it unfolded. Two minutes into the second half, another penalty to Gareth Anscombe (he had 18 points in penalties by the end of the night) saw Wales go to 19-6 and even by that stage, Australia looked cooked. The bench didn’t change that picture.
Ill-discipline and avoidable mistakes at the worst possible times had let Wales get away, and an inexperienced Wallabies side - with many senior players watching on from a couch somewhere - didn’t have the composure to stop the bleeding, let alone mount a comeback.
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