‘Why would you stay?’: The myriad reasons for Daniel Andrews to go

It was July 2007 and Victorian politics and media were abuzz with rumours and conspiracies.

Labor leader Steve Bracks had announced his resignation as premier of Victoria eight months into his third term in a surprise move that caught even his own ministers and MPs off guard. “I have given everything, body and soul to this job … I couldn’t have given any more than I have given over the past eight years to this state,” said Bracks, who also confirmed that family issues were a part of his decision.

Surely, there were other, darker reasons, Coalition MPs and reporters insisted to each other, for a leader to leave while seemingly at the top of his game?

If there were, we never heard about them. No, Bracks opted to leave on a high, at a time of his choosing – a rare thing in politics at any level and great timing just ahead of the Global Financial Crisis.

This week, 16 years later and 10 months into his third term in office, Daniel Andrews stunned his colleagues by announcing he was standing down as premier.

Like Bracks, he said he was leaving because it was time, because of family and because, as someone “worse than a workaholic”, he didn’t want to start resenting the job that had consumed his life for nine years.

Andrews’ Education Minister Natalie Hutchins says there is no doubt about why her former boss had gone. “I honestly think he’d just had enough,” she tells The Age. “You have to understand how relentless the job is.”

But within minutes via X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, WhatsApp and Signal, the rumour and conspiracy mills were alive with questions and theories.

Why’s he really going? Unrest in the ranks? A big corruption scandal looming? The abandonment of a sinking, debt-ridden ship? Surely, Dan is running scared, not just out of steam?

Let’s look at some possibilities.

A looming challenge? Sure the Labor team is anxious about intractable problems such as the cost of living, the housing crisis, and the handling of matters including debt and the Commonwealth Games withdrawal.

Some have been troubled by Andrews’ increasingly centralised command-and-control style of government, the likes of which some senior political commentators and journalists say is unmatched at any level of government in this country.

“Every single detail I ever asked about I reckon ended up going through the premier’s office before it got an answer,” observed ABC presenter Raf Epstein this week to illustrate the extent of Andrews’ control. His frustration is shared across the government itself, the media, business, and the community sector.

Despite such concerns, as of Tuesday, Andrews leadership was as secure as it had ever been. He was, after all, the longest-serving Labor premier in Victorian history, who’d won three successive elections, each with an increased majority.

A Redbridge opinion poll from last week showed John Pesutto’s Coalition had made no ground on the ALP since ­November’s state election. Labor was still leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred 56.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent.

Andrews’ position had been further strengthened by the June state ALP conference – the first since the federal intervention that followed revelations by The Age about branch stacking – out of which his Left faction emerged as the dominant group in the Victorian party.

Andrews’ supporters inside and outside the parliament laugh at the idea of rebellious rumblings in the party room. “In the parliament and in the party, the Left faction is in a stronger position now than it has been for decades,” says Luke Hilakari, the Victorian Trades Hall secretary and Andrews’ friend.

What about the integrity cloud hanging over the government and the growing pile of “scathing” reports from the anti-corruption watchdog, the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC), and Ombudsman Deborah Glass? The longer a government is in power the more scandals it will clock up.

IBAC’s long-awaited report from Operation Richmond, a probe of the government dealings with the United Firefighters Union, is now expected to be tabled next year. Some government insiders fear it will be the most uncomfortable IBAC report since Labor was elected in 2014.

This must all be taking its toll? Could Andrews be timing his exit before Richmond lands?

Absolutely not, say sources close to him who are broadly aware of the report’s findings, speaking on the condition of anonymity. They insist Richmond would not have been seriously damaging to Andrews had he stayed on as premier.

In fact, those who know him well joke about just how unfazed the former premier has been about the IBAC and ombudsman reports published under his watch

“I don’t think that has been an issue in the slightest,” says Bracks, a friend and sometime Andrews confidant. “I don’t think he is concerned at all about anything that IBAC might be looking at.”

So, what about the state’s ballooning debt? Could this be a classic Labor scenario in which a spendthrift leader escapes politics, leaving his colleagues mired in years of gloomy frugality, and the conservatives with the ammunition they need for a comeback?

Pesutto was in no doubt this week. “The facts are that Premier Daniel Andrews is standing down today because things have fallen apart.”

Victoria now has a lower credit rating, the highest debt and – arguably – the highest state taxes per person in the nation. The May budget forecast net debt growing to more than $171 billion by mid-2027, a figure this week described by fiscal guru Professor Bob Officer as “somewhat intimidating”.

The spectre of the Cain/Kirner-era debt was still hanging over Labor when Bracks regained power for Labor in 1999 after seven years of Coalition rule. Does he think Andrews was intimidated by the numbers?

Definitely not. Officer says the Andrews debt is less of a concern than that left from the Cain/Kirner years because so much of it has been devoted to important state infrastructure – such as the Metro Tunnel, level-crossing removals and hospitals – locked in at historic low rates of interest.

“The difference is that this government borrowed for infrastructure, borrowed to provide real services that improve the life of Victorians.”

If anything, Bracks says, Andrews did what he could to absorb the political flack for his government’s financial problems before leaving, pointing to Victoria’s withdrawal from the 2026 Commonwealth Games after a multi-billion cost blow out and a $380 million settlement with Games organisers.

“Daniel had made the decision about the Commonwealth Games and was prepared to wear that,” says Bracks.

“He’s had regard to the longevity of a Labor government and has left the party in a good position to win the next election. His successor [Allan] will have more than three years to prepare for the next election and that is a good amount of time.”

Nevertheless, as one senior Labor figure acknowledges, the thought of years of belt-tightening and debt reduction after almost nine years of “big spending in the good times” – pandemics aside – may have been a factor in Andrews decision-making. “Let’s face it, things aren’t going to get better,” quipped one Labor insider.

When Andrews started seriously thinking about retiring from politics is unclear and arguable.

In spring 2019, senior government insiders told this reporter they expected the then-premier to move on and hand the reins to his deputy Allan ahead of the 2022 poll. But if the second term was an option, it ceased to be by summer 2019 when the state was hit first by devastating bushfires and then by COVID-19.

“I thought he might have gone in the second term, but then COVID hit,” says Bracks. “He decided to step up and to lead the state through that crisis.”

By the time the pandemic finally subsided in late 2021, it was arguably too late for a new leader to prepare for the 2022 election. And anyway, says one Labor strategist, after the angry protests and media backlash over Labor’s lockdown strategy, “Daniel had a point to prove”.

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Andrews acknowledged as much when he told The Age in December that the loudest protests were from commentators who wished a greater level of voter hostility toward him “than what was actually true”. So, he did prove his point, emphatically, by getting himself and his team resoundingly re-elected.

However, few in political or media circles expected Andrews to see out his third term, despite his promise to do so. As Age columnist Shaun Carney explained this week: “The last premier to openly talk about handing over was Jeff Kennett, who spoke in dynastic terms before the 1999 election about training up his ministers to see who could succeed him. He went on to lose the election.”

As this year progressed, there were hints of a looming Andrews departure. Hutchins says that through winter there was an even greater sense of urgency than usual in government business. “Maybe Daniel was pushing to get things finished, so he could move on,” she says.

Colleagues say Andrews seemed focused on ticking off signature, milestone projects such as the Metro Tunnel which, while not finished, he was able to take a trip through last week. Native forest logging was officially ended, and Andrews on Tuesday acknowledged the government’s landmark housing statement – launched last week – was one of his “must finish” projects.

To well-placed observers, including current and former colleagues, the statement felt rushed and undercooked, like there may have been a deadline – a pre-AFL grand final retirement maybe?

Bracks says Andrews chose a time to go when there was “clear air” and “no major crisis or issue”. Friends and colleagues have also noted, by standing down days before the grand final, the Andrews’ era would have a bookend to maximise the possibility of a fresh start for Allan.

Did Andrews really go when he wanted and for the reasons given?

‘Surely, after 21 years in parliament, 13 as leader and nine as premier, the question isn’t why would you leave – it’s why would you stay.’

Jaala Pulford

Jaala Pulford, a minister with Andrews from 2014 until she decided against contesting the 2022 election, is now relishing life outside politics. She says the expectation that politicians stay on in parliament for decades baffles her and that political pundits are asking the wrong question.

“Surely, after 21 years in parliament, 13 as leader and nine as premier, the question isn’t why would you leave - it’s why would you stay,” says Pulford.

“The thing about being a politician is that if you’re awake, you’re on,” she says. “Even on days without a fire, a flood or a pandemic, there are countless issues demanding attention.”

Adam Sims, Andrews’ former media director who worked closely with him until mid-2020, says his former boss approached his departure as he did everything else in politics.

“He was gutsy, not afraid to make big calls, but also kept his focus on what Victorians care about, which I think helps explain why he won three elections in a row,” says Sims.

“I’m pleased he was able to leave at a time of his choosing.”

Hilakari is in no doubt: “Daniel was at the top of his game and chose to go out at the top. And he has left Jacinta with an opposition in the worst place it’s ever been.”

When Bracks stood down as premier in 2007, watching on was his 35-year-old gaming minister and an avid political student, Andrews.

Did the young minister learn from Bracks’ “top of his game” departure?

“Yes”, says Bracks. “As they say, ‘You’re better off leaving when people want more of you’.

“If lots of people are saying, ‘It’s time for you to go’, you’ve probably left it too late.”

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